Battery demand to reach $275bn by 2030: Avicenne
Global demand for batteries is expected to total 2.7TWh by 2030 with a valuation of $275bn, underpinned by strong growth in the electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage sectors, said Avicenne Energy today at the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference in Mainz, Germany.
Demand for lithium-ion batteries — which use a range of metals including lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite — is set to grow to 2.207TWh, with much of the rest of global demand taken by lead-acid batteries, which will still be used for EVs, according to Avicenne Energy. “We are probably conservative in our forecasts but we expect 35pc of the global automotive market will be electrified,” said Fabrice Renard, senior advisor at the company.
Demand from the EV segment in particular will be around 2TWh, according to Avicenne’s forecasts, growing by a compound annual growth rate of 28pc from 2021-30. The rest will come from a range of different applications for lithium-ion batteries.
“In non-portable, non-electronic and non-EV applications there is a lot of opportunity, and they are still growing,” Renard said, adding that applications in the e-bike, power tool and forklift truck sectors have continued to grow, as well as uses in energy storage, which will become more prominent later in the decade.
Asia continues to dominate the market
Planned capacity for batteries is expected to reach 3TWh by 2030, keeping pace with demand as battery giga-factories spring up in Europe, Asia and the US.
In Europe, the total share of global battery capacity will grow to 24pc of the market in 2030, from just 7pc in 2021. Asia’s total share of capacity is expected to shrink to 54pc in 2030 from 60pc in 2021, while North America will account for 13pc of global capacity, up from 11pc in 2021.
The majority of planned global expansions are in China, despite Europe increasing overall market share. China is expected to grow to just below 1.6TWh by 2030 from 220GWh in 2020. Europe will rise to 700GWh by 2030, up from a negligible amount in 2020.
Much of the expansion in Europe is a result of large investment in recent years into battery giga-factories. Despite this, Europe will remain reliant on Asia for some aspects of the battery supply chain.
“Around 55-60pc of the cost of a giga-factory is linked to cell manufacturing equipment and today this supply is mainly coming from Asia. Probably 90pc of the equipment arriving today is supplied by Chinese, Japanese and Korean companies,” said Renard.
The world is expected to need 3.5mn-5mn t of cathode active materials annually by 2030 to meet demand for batteries, up from below 800,000t in 2021.
“Probably 20pc of these materials will be needed for Europe, and today there are only two companies starting to produce cathode active materials, Umicore and BASF,” said Renard. “We will need, by 2030, 600,000-800,000t of cathodes… Until there are more capacity expansions, we will need to be supplied by Asian suppliers.”
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